Radical uncertainty

Willis Towers Watson
Wednesday, 11 March 2020
5:30 pm – 8:00 pm
    • Professor John Kay, Economist

In this joint event with CISI, Professor Kay examined the uncertainty that pervades the big decisions we all make in our lives.

How much should we pay into our pensions each month? Should we take regular exercise? Expand the business? Change our strategy? Enter a trade agreement? Take an expensive holiday?

We do not know what the future will hold, but we must make decisions anyway. So we crave certainties which cannot exist and invent knowledge we cannot have. But humans are successful because they have adapted to an environment that they understand only imperfectly. Throughout history we have developed a variety of ways to coping with the radical uncertainty that defines our lives.

Lord (Mervyn) King, former Governor of the Bank of England, and Professor John Kay, two of the world's most eminent economists, have spent their professional lives considering and discussing these themes.

In an incisive and eye-opening new book drawing on biography, history, mathematics, economics and philosophy Professor Kay highlighted the most successful - and most short-sighted - methods of dealing with an unknowable future.

By the end of this lecture members would have gained an insight into:

  • a greater understanding of the role of uncertainty in finance
  • why the prevalent method of prediction falls short
  • why it results in giving us a false understanding of our power to make predictions, leading to many of the problems we experience today

George Littlejohn MCSI, Senior Advisor, CISI

  • Willis Towers Watson
  • 51 Lime Street
  • London
  • EC3M 7DQ
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Registration & Security

IIL lectures are open to CII and PFS members
CII and PFS members must register online by 12pm one working day before the lecture
For lectures held in The Old Library, Lloyd's pass holders may also attend and do not need to register
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CII Accredited

This demonstrates the quality of an event and that it meets CII member CPD scheme requirements.

1 hour's CPD can be claimed for this event if relevant to your learning and development needs.

It is recommended that you keep any evidence of the CPD activity you have completed and upload copies to the recording tool as the CII may ask to see this if your record is selected for review. Details of the scheme can be viewed online at www.cii.co.uk/cpd.