Developing scenarios to understand risk

The Old Library, Lloyd's
Tuesday, 10 March 2020
1:10 pm – 1:55 pm
    • Professor Danny Ralph, Academic Director of the Cambridge Risk Centre, University of Cambridge
    • Oliver Carpenter, Research Assistant of the Cambridge Risk Centre, University of Cambridge
  • Reinsurance lecture

In this IIL reinsurance lecture Professor Danny Ralph and Oliver Carpenter talked about risk within a different range of possible future scenarios and a tool to cope with uncertainty, especially when risks are not well understood, or cannot be quantified or identified.

In their lecture, Professor Ralph and Oliver aimed to cover understanding the broad applications of scenarios to explore risk, to explore common characteristics and differences in scenario typologies and how to apply common frameworks to develop relevant and effective scenarios.

The aim was to provide a systematic method for thinking creatively about a variety of possible futures, rather than attempting to accurately predict individual outcomes. Scenarios are increasingly used by practitioners, decision makers, and other stakeholders in insurance to better understand the characteristics and consequences of unknown, uncertain, or unexpected future events, and support planning and decision-making strategies to address them. This session marked the launch of two scenario best practice guides - for the insurance industry and the disaster risk reduction community - exploring development frameworks and key considerations.

By the end of this lecture members would have gained an insight into:

  • The definition and types of scenarios
  • How can they be used to aid strategy and decision making
  • Where to find supportive information to help a practitioner develop scenarios

Chair:
Andrew Carrier, Everest Re.

Venue
  • The Old Library, Lloyd's
  • One Lime Street
  • London
  • EC3M 7HA
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Registration & Security

IIL lectures are open to CII and PFS members
CII and PFS members must register online by 12pm one working day before the lecture
For lectures held in The Old Library, Lloyd's pass holders may also attend and do not need to register
All attendees (at any venue) must produce photo ID - either a Lloyd's pass, driving licence with photo or valid passport

Conditions:

  • Email confirmations and photo ID must be produced to security staff at the lecture venue
  • Attendance confirmations are non-transferable to any other person or lecture
  • All venues have limited capacity and registration and/or a Lloyd's pass does not guarantee admission

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Contact:
Please contact Patricia Pedraza (020 7397 3911) with any queries regarding the CPD events programme.

CII Accredited

This demonstrates the quality of an event and that it meets CII member CPD scheme requirements.

3/4 hours' CPD can be claimed for this event if relevant to your learning and development needs.

It is recommended that you keep any evidence of the CPD activity you have completed and upload copies to the recording tool as the CII may ask to see this if your record is selected for review. Details of the scheme can be viewed online at www.cii.co.uk/cpd.