Is the current financially healthy global airline industry just a temporary change?

In this IIL aviation lecture Brian Pearce talked about the dramatic improvement in airline industry profitability since 2015, following its decades of shareholder value destruction, its breadth and durability, and what this could mean for London's insurance industry.

He explained that until 2015 the global airline industry had never generated a return on invested capital that reached the industry's cost of capital; on average investors' capital was destroyed at a rate of $20 billion a year. That all changed in 2015. Since then the industry has delivered above-cost-of-capital returns. There have been structural changes, particularly in the US, suggesting this transformation has some durability. One view is that the industry may not be as risky an investment as it was. But the US experience is not yet widespread, low fuel costs may be either transitory or a generator of excess capacity, and there are some major disruptors on the horizon.

By the end of this lecture members would have gained an insight into:

• Why the airline industry has only recently generated 'normal' invest returns
• How durable and widespread is the transformation
• Why this matters for the wider economy

Speakers Bio:
Brian became IATA's Chief Economist in 2004, following similar roles at Forum for the Future, SBC Warburg (now UBS) and at EY's ITEM Club. He is also a Visiting Professor at Cranfield University.

Chair:
Liz Holton, IATA.

CPD events are open to CII and PFS members
Registration closes at 12pm two working days before the event date
For events held in The Old Library, Lloyd's pass holders may also attend and do not need to register
Original Photo ID (Driving Licence, Passport, Work ID with company logo and full name) is required to gain entry to all venues

Conditions:

• Email confirmations and original photo ID must be produced to security staff at the lecture venue
• Attendance confirmations are non-transferable to any other person or lecture
• All venues have limited capacity and registration and/or a Lloyd's pass does not guarantee admission

Please let us know what we can do to make our events fully accessible to you.

Contact:
Please contact Patricia Pedraza (07463 028327) with any queries regarding the CPD events programme.